Ray C. Fair

PREFACE At the end of 2000 the United States was in its tenth consecutive year of an economic expansion, the longest in the country's history. Unemployment was at its lowest since 1970, productivity growth was high, and although oil prices had risen sharply, inflation was low. Chronic federal...

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus YaleBy Kathryn M. Domínguez, Ray C. Fair, Matthew D. Shapiro*Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long should it have taken contemporary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? Data assembled by the Harvard and...